What Are Chances Of Ravens Getting No. 1 Overall Draft Pick?
It’s almost unfathomable. The D-word is being mentioned in Baltimore … in October.
But with a 1-5 record, it’s only human for fans and media to start thinking about the 2016 NFL Draft. The Ravens are tied for the worst record in the league, so it makes sense that there’s also talk about General Manager Ozzie Newsome getting his hands on the top overall pick.
Can you picture it? The Ravens with the No. 1 pick. Doesn’t that also sound unfathomable?
Well, it’s certainly possible. If the season ended today, the Ravens would have the No. 3 overall pick behind the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars.
And, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Ravens have a better chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming draft (3.6 percent) than making the playoffs (2.2 percent).
Analytical site, numberFire, gives Baltimore an even better chance at the top pick at 9.7 percent compared to .4 percent playoff chances. It gives only the Jaguars (27.5 percent) and Chicago Bears (16.8 percent) a better shot at the coveted slot.
“Just imagine that in 190 days, you could hear Roger Goodell say this: With the first pick in the 2016 NFL draft, the Baltimore Ravens select ...,” wrote ESPN’s Jamison Hensley.
Now that we’ve got you dreaming big, sorry, it’s already time to reel it back (a little).
The Ravens have a heavy home schedule during the second half of the season, and with their previous losses all by six points or less, the Ravens are bound to start winning at a higher rate.
“[T]he more likely scenario is Baltimore finishes somewhere in the top 10,” wrote Hensley.
If we start to see a portion of Ravens Nation actually wanting to see the Ravens lose just to get a high pick, well, it wouldn’t be the first time. Remember when Indianapolis Colts fans started the social campaign “Suck for Luck”?
That’s fine, but don’t expect the team to have that mentality. Head Coach John Harbaugh, quarterback 
After all, finishing with No. 1 pick equates to being the worst team in the NFL.
“The Ravens don't see themselves as the worst team in football,” wrote Hensley. “Baltimore looks to the fact all five losses have been decided by a total of 22 points. The Ravens see themselves closer to turning the corner than bottoming out as a franchise.”
Sure, it would be nice to see what Newsome could do if he had the freedom to choose any of the hundreds of draft prospects available. It’s been a looooong time, but look at his track when he had a top-5 draft pick. He scooped up Hall of Fame tackle Jonathan Ogden (1996), perennial Pro Bowl pass rusher Peter Boulware (1997) and NFL-record breaking running back Jamal Lewis (2000).
But as my colleague John Eisenberg reminded us earlier this week, there’s only one thing that matters in the NFL, even more than the top overall draft pick.
“[P]lease understand, winning is all that counts in the NFL, regardless of your circumstances,” he wrote. “It’s the only currency. Willingly sacrificing games never happens. It sends the wrong message to fans spending hundreds on tickets. In this case, it would send the wrong message to a team defined by desire and effort in both good times and bad.”
So we’ll see if the Ravens’ determination and perseverance can snap them out of their current funk. Heck, maybe they’ll be the NFL Cinderella story this year. But if not …
“Whether the Ravens will get their first choice of [a draft pick] could end up being the main drama over the next 11 weeks,” wrote Hensley.
Ravens Not Drafting Enough Playmakers
While we’re on the topic of the draft, CSNMidAtlantic.com’s Clifton Brown says the front office needs to do a better job of selecting playmakers.
The recent troubles are partly why you see the most impactful skill position players on offense coming via the free-agent market. See wide receiver Steve Smith Sr. and running back
“It’s clear their last five draft classes haven’t produced enough playmakers,” wrote Brown. “[W]here’s the youth, with Smith planning to retire, and Forsett already 30 years old?”
Baltimore’s top division rivals have stockpiled young, explosive talent on offense through their drafts.
For the Steelers, it’s running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receivers Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton. For the Bengals, it’s wide receivers A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, running backs Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill and tight end Tyler Eifert.
Expanding upon Brown’s idea of drafting better playmakers on offense, WNST’s Luke Jones feels like there’s been a deficiency at the defensive backs position, too.
Here’s a look at the draft picks made at the wide receiver, defensive back, tight end and running back positions since 2011, after the Ravens selected Torrey Smith and
Wide Receivers
Tandon Doss (2011, Round 4)
Tommy Streeter (2012, Round 6)
Aaron Mellette (2013, Round 7)
Defensive Backs
CB Chykie Brown (2011, Round 5)
S Christian Thompson (2012, Round 4)
CB
S
CB Marc Anthony (2013, Round 7)
S
CB
Running Backs
Anthony Allen (2011, Round 7)
Bernard Pierce (2012, Round 3)
Buck Allen (2015, Round 4)
Tight Ends
“Perhaps Perriman, the young tight ends, Allen and Waller will all be part of a brighter future,” wrote Brown. “But right now, the Ravens are 1-5. Neither the Bengals (6-0), nor Steelers (4-2) would trade playmakers with the Ravens. They also wouldn’t trade places with the Ravens in the AFC North standings.”
Why Is Pitta Returning Now? Salary Cap Scenarios
Some of the folks at Russell Street Report are asking why now?
The Ravens have .03 percent chance of making the playoffs and the three young tight ends – Gillmore, Williams and Boyle – are holding their own. On the other hand, the offense certainly could use another reliable target if Pitta can play. Flacco wouldn’t hate having one of his most-trusted targets on crucial third downs again.
But as Harbaugh said several times yesterday, this is Pitta’s decision, and this season could be his last opportunity to prove he deserves to continue his career.
“Personally, I believe Pitta realizes his time in Baltimore is all but done at the conclusion of this season, and he wants to showcase his talents as much as possible to ensure he’s still be suiting up next year (health willing),” wrote RSR’s Adam Bonaccorsi. “If not, then perhaps this is an attempt by the Ravens to showcase Pitta in hopes of turning him into trade bait for a team in desperate need of a tight end.”
Added RSR’s Kyle Rate: “If he’s healthy and confident, it would be much better for the Ravens if he tested his abilities and health in live action this year. It would give us a clearer roster picture heading into 2016, rather than letting a large question mark loom over the entire offseason.”
Regardless of whether Pitta returns to game action and how he plays if he makes it there, salary cap guru Brian McFarland has a hard time believing Pitta will be playing at his scheduled 2016 salary.
If his contract is untouched, Pitta’s cap hit next year is $7.2 million, per Spotrac.com. If the Ravens were to release Pitta before June 1, they would be looking at $6.6 million in dead money, per McFarland. That changes to $2.2 million in dead money if Pitta is released after June 1. If the Ravens want to keep him, there is also a possibility of restructuring his contract, asking him to take a pay cut.
There’s one more nuance that needs to be considered if Pitta plays this season and is injured.
“[I]f he’s passed his physical and gets hurt again, the Ravens would most assuredly release him next Feb/March,” wrote McFarland. “Because the injury would have occurred in 2015, he would be entitled to the CBA-mandated ‘Injury Protection Benefit,’ which in 2016 starts counting against the cap.
“So, unless he’s waived that as a stipulation of his returning to practice, that would mean an additional $1.1M in dead money against the cap in 2015 if the Ravens are forced to release him.”
Ray Lewis: 'I Live With Atlanta Every Day Of My Life'
Ravens future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis is on a whirlwind media tour with his recently released autobiography, "I Feel Like Going On: Life, Game, And Glory."
The ninth chapter of his book is the one everybody is talking about. It is simply titled “Atlanta” and covered in great detail by Deadspin.
Lewis also talks about that night in an interview with his new employer, ESPN, in the video below. I’ve also added a few interviews with PBS’ Charlie Rose and CBS This Morning. If you want to meet Lewis and get your copy of his book signed, you can see him at Barnes and Noble today (details below).
BALTIMORE!!!!! Come on out tomorrow #innerharbor pic.twitter.com/kkeXEivnXV
— Ray Lewis (@raylewis) October 21, 2015
Several Injured Ravens Return, But Are Replaced By Others
There were several encouraging signs when media got a peek into practice for 15 minutes Wednesday afternoon.
In addition to Pitta returning, cornerback
On the flip side, however, the Ravens were without eight other players, per media reports, including wide receiver Breshad Perriman (knee), running back Justin Forsett (ankle), tight end Maxx Williams (ankle), guard
Since the Ravens don’t play until Monday night this week, the first official injury report won’t come until Thursday afternoon and the final version will be released Saturday.
Quick Hits
- “Newsome has often spoken about the unique individuals drafted by the Ravens to earn a second contract after their rookie deal, but four-time Pro Bowl right guard Marshal Yanda joined an even more exclusive group to receive a third payday with Baltimore,” wrote Jones. Not even Ed Reed got a third contract in Baltimore. The only other Ravens to get three contracts were Ogden, Lewis and
Terrell Suggs . [WNST] - “Using 20-20 hindsight to judge a draft is easy, but you still can’t help but wonder whether the Ravens should have pulled the trigger in drafting former Maryland wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who is earning major praise with the Minnesota Vikings for his last two games,” wrote Jones. “With Diggs on the board, the Ravens selected Walker from Texas Southern with the final selection of the fourth round. Ten picks later, Minnesota drafted the former Terp with the 146th overall pick.” [WNST]
. #MNF pic.twitter.com/2tQwlWJEKG
— ESPN Monday Night (@ESPNMondayNight) October 21, 2015 #Ravens Hall of Famer @jonathanogden75 helps fan enjoy football game. My latest on the @RussellStReport. #Class https://t.co/SwVVNQSeXB
— Brian Bower (@sportguyRSR) October 21, 2015 Steve Smith says his retirement plans are still "on schedule" https://t.co/kcS5jXv0hG #RavensTalk pic.twitter.com/W6goRhjfYR
— CSN Ravens (@CSNRavens) October 21, 2015 Steve Smith has the second-most 100-yard games (7) in Ravens history. And he hasn't even played 2 full seasons in Baltimore yet.
— Garrett Downing (@gdowning14) October 21, 2015 Where do the #Ravens need to step up? Faster starts on offense, limit big plays on defense and win turnover battle https://t.co/zIipSEL1Kt
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) October 21, 2015 Progress has little to do with speed, but much to do with direction ~Unknown #IWILL #TeamUA https://t.co/cXuFJbIdTe pic.twitter.com/z9m4s1h82z
— Crockett Gillmore (@CrockettG7) October 21, 2015 
