Large Majority of Pundits Pick Ravens to Win Showdown for First Place
The stakes are high for Sunday's showdown between the Ravens and archrival Pittsburgh Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium.
The winner will seize sole possession of first place in the AFC North. The loser will see their playoff chances dramatically decrease, according to multiple analytics models.
Both teams are coming off disappointing losses. The Ravens fumbled an opportunity to take control of the division, committing five turnovers against the Cincinnati Bengals on Thanksgiving to snap a five-game winning streak. The Steelers were steamrolled by the Buffalo Bills this past Sunday, as they suffered their fifth defeat in their past seven games.
The Ravens (6-6) won the past two meetings with Pittsburgh (6-6) by a combined 31 points, including a two-touchdown victory in a Wild-Card playoff game in January.
A large majority of pundits we sampled (41 of 48) believe Baltimore will come out on top again.
The game features the head-to-head matchup between two-time MVP quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers. Jackson (ankle) did not practice on Thursday – the fourth week in a row he's missed at least one day of practice – but Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken said he expects him to play. Rodgers (wrist) was a full participant at Thursday's practice after sitting out the previous day.
Here's what pundits are saying about the game:
The Ravens will run all over the Steelers again.
The Athletic’s Mike Defabo: "This offseason, Steelers Defensive Coordinator Teryl Austin admitted that Pittsburgh had a 'Baltimore problem' last year. In a December matchup that swung the division in the Ravens' favor, Baltimore rushed for 220 yards. They followed it up in the playoffs with a 299-yard rushing outburst. Considering the Steelers just gave up 249 rushing yards to the Bills and first-round defensive tackle Derrick Harmon is sidelined with a knee injury, it doesn't appear Pittsburgh is in a much better position to handle Derrick Henry and Jackson. I'll take the Ravens at home."
CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco: "The Steelers have major defensive issues. Look for a big game by Derrick Henry as the Ravens win it behind a big rushing performance."
This could be a get-right game for Jackson.
NFL.com’s Gennaro Filice: "Lamar Jackson just hasn't looked like Lamar Jackson since his return from injury. Over the last three games, the two-time MVP has zero touchdowns and five turnovers. And the Steelers have given him fits through the years. That said, this year's Pittsburgh defense is anything but a Steel Curtain. The unit is giving up 365.1 yards per game, which currently ranks 28th in the league and dead last in the proud history of this franchise."
Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio: "If the Steelers load up to stop Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson will have a chance to get back on track."
The Steelers offense won't score enough to keep up.
CBS Sports’ Jared Dubin: "Pittsburgh's offense just doesn't have enough to hang -- even with a Ravens offense that is struggling in its own right. The Ravens should be able to run the ball on the Steelers. Presumably not as well as the Bills did last week, obviously. But getting Derrick Henry downhill more often should help get the passing game in rhythm as well. Lamar Jackson can't be held down like this for much longer... can he?"
The Steelers and Head Coach Mike Tomlin will find a way to win.
The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec: "I think the Steelers win. Their pass rush will present all sorts of issues for Jackson and a struggling offensive line and it would be so on-brand for Pittsburgh and Tomlin to respond with a win after people started to write the obituaries for their season."
The 33rd Team's Sam Monson: "This is how [Tomlin] gets to nine wins every year, this is the game. They haven't lost more than two in a row at any point this season. As soon as you write them off, that's when he wins a game that he shouldn't win."
Pittsburgh could get a boost from a veteran acquired off waivers this week.
Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton: "Don't be surprised if new Steelers receiver Adam Thielen makes an immediate impact in a tight division battle that could go either way."
| Source | Prediction | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN | 9 of 11 panelists pick Ravens | |
| USA Today | 5 of 6 panelists pick Ravens | |
| NFL Network | 9 of 10 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Sporting News | Steelers 20, Ravens 17 | “The Pittsburgh Steelers need to be run-heavy with Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell to have their best offensive success with Aaron Rodgers' recent injury woes and the passing game showing its major limitations. In a twist, the Ravens' offense also has been sloppy and inefficient when Derrick Henry is contained. Lamar Jackson seeing Pittsburgh's up-and-down defense means something will give. The two-time MVP QB just looks off since returning from his hamstring injury.” — Vinnie Iyer |
| CBS Sports | 6 of 6 panelists pick Ravens | “Both teams are coming off bad losses, both at home. Neither team is playing well, but the Ravens are playing a little better. The Steelers have major defensive issues. Look for a big game by Derrick Henry as the Ravens win it behind a big rushing performance.” — Pete Prisco |
| Sports Illustrated | 5 of 6 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Baltimore Sun | Steelers 17, Ravens 14 | “Another close ending seems all but certain in a rivalry in which 28 of 38 matchups have been decided by one score. Although the Ravens seem better equipped on paper, this one might end in a fourth straight Jackson clunker feeding a narrow loss because the Steelers do barely enough.” – Sam Cohn |
| NFL.com | 5 of 5 panelists pick Ravens | “As one of the best rivalries in football, Steelers-Ravens is never easy to handicap. But while both sides enter this game at 6-6, the visiting team seems more likely to dip below .500 – and, quite possibly, stay there for the first losing season of the Mike Tomlin era.” — Gennaro Filice |
| Pro Football Talk | 2 of 2 panelists pick Ravens | “If the Steelers load up to stop Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson will have a chance to get back on track.”— Mike Florio |
Dan Orlovsky Is 'Very Concerned' About Jackson
When Jackson is on his game, the Ravens are a matchup nightmare for defenses, but he has not played to his usual high standard since returning from a hamstring injury five weeks ago.
Jackson has refused to use injuries as an excuse, but with Jackson missing practice again on Thursday, ESPN's Dan Orlovsky said he is "very concerned" about him going forward.
"To watch Lamar play this year, it's odd, it's difficult just to see the lack of execution and high-level ability," Orlovsky said. "So now it's just another reminder that he's not even remotely close to healthy. The misses, the decision, the holding onto the football, the lack of accuracy, the being tackled one-on-one."
Orlovsky theorized that Jackson's difficulties have led to Henry not being as dominant as he was last season.
"We're trying to figure out maybe why Derrick Henry's not running as well," Orlovsky said. "This was one of the best zone-read combos, when Lamar's in the gun, the zone-read, last year. They're not running it as much nor nearly as effective."
Two Ravens Pro Bowlers Named Possible Surprise Cut or Trade Candidates
ESPN’s Dan Graziano looked ahead to the offseason and identified notable players who could be surprise cuts or trade candidates.
Two Ravens Pro Bowlers were among them: cornerback Marlon Humphrey and center Tyler Linderbaum.
"Humphrey isn't even 30 years old, yet this is his ninth season in Baltimore, spanning his entire NFL career," Graziano wrote. "He will have one year and $19.25 million left on his contract after this season. None of that money is guaranteed, but $4 million of it is in a roster bonus that is due the fifth day of the 2026 league year. Presumably, the Ravens would want to decide before that date whether to extend Humphrey, move on from him or just pay him the bonus and let him play out the final year of his deal.
"As of right now – with obviously some extensions still to come that could change this – Humphrey's $19.25 million would be the fifth highest for any cornerback in the league in 2026. Is he the fifth-best corner in the NFL? Odds are something gets done with this contract or Humphrey is gone from Baltimore in 2026, even though he has five pass breakups and an interception this season. The Ravens have been getting younger in the secondary through recent drafts and could certainly continue that trend."
The Ravens declined Linderbaum's fifth-year option in the spring but made clear they want to sign him to an extension.
"The reason they didn't pick up the option was that fifth-year option prices (as well as franchise and transition tags) are the same for all offensive linemen, whether they're centers or guards or tackles," Graziano wrote. "That $23.4 million is top-10 tackle money; the highest-paid center right now is Kansas City's Creed Humphrey at $18 million per year. Picking up the option would have blown the roof off the center market, as would tagging him next spring.
"The flip side is that Linderbaum should hold his ground and demand no less than $59 million fully guaranteed over the first two years of a new deal, since that's what it would cost to tag him twice. All of this is to say that this situation has a chance to get very complicated, even though the Ravens might want Linderbaum back and he might want to be back. He is second to Humphrey in pass block win rate among centers since 2022 (96.0%)."
Why Mark Andrews Is Worth His Contract Extension
Even though Mark Andrews will turn 31 at the start of the 2026 season, The Baltimore Banner’s Kyle Goon applauded the Ravens' decision to sign the three-time Pro Bowl tight end to a three-year contract extension.
"There are players you count on for production and some you count on to set an example and build culture," Goon wrote. "Mark Andrews is both. Although he is not on the 'Mount Rushmore' of Ravens history — you'll have a hard time moving Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Jonathan Ogden and, eventually, Lamar Jackson out of that top four — Andrews is (by definition) a franchise great. Whatever hope Baltimore has of making the postseason this year, he's a driving force in the effort."
Goon said Andrews has shown again this season why he is so valuable.
"In a year in which the whole passing offense is out of whack, it's distorting to look at Andrews' decline in receiving yards and receptions and decide he is washed up," Goon wrote. "He's second on the team in receiving yards, second in receptions (with 19 more than next-closest Isaiah Likely) and, unlike leading receiver Zay Flowers, Andrews has a knack for finding the end zone (16 touchdowns in the past two seasons).
"It defies good sense that the Ravens, who are struggling in the red zone this year more than any other in recent memory, should let their best scoring target hit the bricks. His end-zone chemistry with Lamar Jackson is the fuel this offense has been running on — through different coordinators and teammates — since he splashed into the NFL as a third-round pick."
Goon noted that Andrews' professionalism and dedication also make him special.
"If we were talking only about what Andrews does on the field, maybe it wouldn't be worth making him one of the NFL's top-paid tight ends. But his work ethic is hard to beat," Goon wrote. "Andrews' intensity sets a tone in practice almost to a fault — he sometimes seems as mad at a bad drive on the practice field as on Sundays. In workouts, you don't catch him skipping sets."
