Ravens Are Unanimous Pick to Beat Browns
There are several storylines surrounding the Ravens' home opener Sunday against the Cleveland Browns.
Former Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco returning to M&T Bank Stadium as an opposing player for the first time is the most obvious one. There's also the curious decision of Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy and safety Grant Delpit to provide bulletin board material.
The main storyline, of course, is that the Ravens are looking to bounce back after last Sunday night's 41-40 loss to the Buffalo Bills, who erased a 15-point deficit in the final four minutes, to avoid starting 0-2 for the second year in a row.
All 57 of the pundits we sampled predicted a victory for the Ravens, who are 11.5-point favorites, on a day in which the franchise will celebrate its 30th season.
That said, the Ravens know better than to underestimate the Browns, who are coming off a 17-16 loss to Cincinnati last week in which their defense held the Bengals' explosive offense to 141 yards.
The Ravens have dominated the series, going 37-15 against Cleveland, but the Browns have won four of the past seven meetings.
Here's what pundits are saying about the game:
It will be a convincing win for the Ravens.
Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton: "Last Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens let one get away, squandering a 15-point fourth-quarter lead to the Buffalo Bills, but they will refocus and punish the Cleveland Browns in a bounce-back game. Typically, Cleveland keeps the scores close against Baltimore, but between turnovers (two) and an inefficient ground game (two yards per carry), the Browns don't have the offensive firepower to keep pace with the Ravens."
Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio: "I believe the Ravens will be prepared to rectify Week 1 and send the kind of message to themselves and everyone else that they are a force to be reckoned with."
USA Today’s Blake Schuster: "The Ravens are going to take out so much frustration on the Browns I almost feel bad for them."
Expect the Ravens defense to rebound.
The Athletic’s Vic Tafur: "There are very few givens this week, other than the Ravens' and Steelers' defenses bouncing back after embarrassing efforts last week. The Browns' close loss to the Bengals means nothing to me, as they always play the Bengals tough, and the Bengals are still in hibernation. Joe Flacco, Dylan Sampson and Harold Fannin Jr. will have a very hard time getting to 17 points, while Lamar Jackson's crew averaged 33 points at home last season."
The Browns defense could make it a close game.
The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec: "The pundits predicting the Ravens to bludgeon the Browns might want to look back to last year when the Ravens followed a dramatic late-game road loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1 by laying an egg at home in Week 2 against a bad Las Vegas Raiders team. The Browns will create some anxious moments, but the Ravens should pull away in the fourth quarter."
Yahoo! Sports’ Frank Schwab: "It's hard to predict how the Ravens will react to one of the most crushing losses you can imagine. They could be very angry and take it out on the Browns. Or will there be a hangover? Either way, the Browns defense might be pretty good. They had a lot to do with the Bengals' struggles last week. Cleveland's defense can keep it within 10 points."
The Ravens will win, but don't be surprised if Flacco has a big day.
CBS Sports’ John Breech: "I don't necessarily trust Joe Flacco, but he outplayed Joe Burrow in Week 1 and there's no reason to think he can't put up decent numbers against a Ravens defense that surrendered 389 passing yards in their opener. Yes, that was against Josh Allen, but this is the same Ravens defense that gave up the second-most passing yards in the NFL last year, and it doesn't look like they've fixed anything. There is no one Flacco wants to beat more than the Ravens, so I'm starting to feel like he might go off for 300 yards."
TE Mark Andrews is poised for an impactful performance.
ESPN’s Seth Walder: "Bold prediction: Andrews bounces back with five receptions and a touchdown after a fallow Week 1 in which he managed only five yards. Cleveland gave up targets to tight ends 21% of the time last season (sixth most) and 32% of the time (second most) last week."
| Source | Prediction | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN | 11 of 11 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Baltimore Sun | 6 of panelists pick Ravens | “Outside of wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, tight end David Njoku and 41-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco, the Browns simply don’t have enough firepower to keep up with a Baltimore offense that racked up 432 yards against the Bills last week.” — Brian Wacker |
| USA Today | 6 of 6 panelists pick Ravens | |
| NFL.com | 5 of 5 panelists pick Ravens | “With game-wrecker extraordinaire Myles Garrett doing his thing up front and second-round rookie Carson Schwesinger making plays all over the field, the Browns held the Bengals to 141 total yards, including just 7(!) in the second half. What are the chances Cleveland duplicates this inspired defensive effort against another high-powered divisional foe on Sunday? Slim, meet none. Lamar Jackson and Co. just hit the road and served up a 40-burger to a Super Bowl contender … but they still suffered a humiliating defeat, becoming the first team in NFL history to lose a game in regulation after leading by 15-plus points with under four minutes remaining. That's doubly bad for Cleveland, as the Browns aren't just running into a buzzsaw, but one that's fully motivated to put last week's stunning collapse in the rearview.”— Gennaro Filice |
| NFL Network | 11 of 11 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Sporting News | Ravens 34, Browns 10 | “Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry added up to blowing another big fourth-quarter lead, so the focus will be on trying to dominate wire-to-wire, staying hot and aggressive after a fast start to have the needed furious finish to slam the door on old friend in Joe Flacco.” — Vinnie Iyer |
| CBS Sports | 8 of 8 panelists pick Ravens | “The Ravens will be looking to bounce back from a brutal loss to the Bills on Sunday night. It's hard to get past that, but this team and this coach can do it. The Browns played well on defense against the Bengals, but this is another tough challenge. The Ravens will get back on track.” — Pete Prisco |
| Pro Football Talk | 2 of 2 panelists pick Ravens | “Last year, the Ravens showed up flat in Week 2 after a close loss in a Week 1 playoff rematch. They won’t do that again.” — Mike Florio |
| Sports Illustrated | 7 of 7 panelists pick Ravens |
Ravens Reportedly Restructured Roquan Smith's Contract
The Ravens have reportedly restructured All-Pro inside linebacker Roquan Smith's contract to create salary-cap space.
According to Spotrac and Russell Street Report's Brian McFarland, the Ravens created $8 million in cap space by converting $12 million of Smith's salary into a signing bonus. The team now has approximately $10.5 million in cap room.
A to Z Sports’ Kyle Crabbs said the move doesn't necessarily mean the Ravens are about to make a significant addition to their roster.
"With this move, the Ravens should consider themselves to have ample wiggle room for the regular season," Crabbs wrote. "That includes practice squad budgeting, which can cost over $4 million per season in additional salaries and spending, plus have the Ravens covered in the event that they need to add talent throughout the course of the regular season amid injuries.
"With $10.5 million in cap space, personnel additions of any kind should be considered on the table, but this isn't the kind of major domino that should be considered a looming omen of a major move on the horizon. Instead, it should be viewed as good bookkeeping with the right kind of player to ensure you don't get caught off guard when the season throws the first curveball."
How Week 1 Results Affected Top of AFC Hierarchy
The Ravens, Bills, and Chiefs have been the AFC's Big Three in recent years, and that's how they're viewed this season as well.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell looked at how the results from Week 1 affected the AFC hierarchy, using ESPN's Football Power Index as a guide.
Heading into Week 1, FPI gave the Ravens a 20.4% chance of being the AFC's top seed. The Bills were next (18.8%), followed by the Chiefs (18.4%).
The Bills leapfrogged the Ravens after their win Sunday night, as they now have a 30% chance of securing the No. 1 seed, while the Ravens are second at 16.8%.
The Los Angeles Chargers have the third-best odds (15.8%) after their 27-21 win over the Chiefs in Week 1. Kansas City fell to No. 4 at 7.5%.
Regarding the Ravens, Barnwell wrote: "It seems telling that the Ravens lost their season opener and still managed to mostly maintain their chances of coming away with the top seed. In part, that owes to FPI's belief that this is the best team in football. The model saw the Ravens narrowly ahead of the Eagles and Chiefs heading into Week 1, and after they became the first team to drop 40 points on a Sean McDermott-led defense in Buffalo since Carson Wentz and the Colts did it in 2021, FPI only likes the Ravens more.
"That might seem weird given that the Ravens lost, of course, but the model is giving Baltimore a boost for playing so well on the road against another highly ranked team. The Ravens recovered only one of three fumbles and went 1-for-3 in the red zone, the latter a surprise for the league's most efficient red zone offense a year ago. The Ravens averaged nearly 9 yards per play, the most any team has generated against a McDermott defense since he was the coordinator for the Panthers in 2016 and went up against eventual league MVP Matt Ryan and Kyle Shanahan. If you want to pin credit for the fumbles and the red zone stops on the Bills' defense, you're entirely within your right to do so, but FPI sees this as a dominant performance by a truly great offense."
While the Bills hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Ravens, Barnwell noted that advanced metrics such as FPI and DVOA still see Baltimore as the better team.
"This is a very good team, and while the Ravens have the Chiefs, Rams, Texans and Lions coming up before the end of October, five of their next six games are at home," Barnwell wrote. "Baltimore's schedule gets very friendly in the second half, too."
