ESPN Analytics Projects Ravens-Eagles As Second-Most Likely Super Bowl Matchup
ESPN launched its Football Power Index for the 2025 season, and the analytics-based model projects the Ravens to be one of the strongest Super Bowl contenders.
The second-most likely Super Bowl matchup pits the Ravens against the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles. The only matchup with a better chance is a rematch between the Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs. A Ravens-Detroit Lions Super Bowl came in at No. 5.
The Ravens were ranked No. 3 in the FPI ratings (behind the Eagles and Chiefs) and given the fourth-best chance to win the Super Bowl (behind the Eagles, Chiefs and, Buffalo Bills). ESPN's preseason predictive FPI ratings are primarily based on win totals from the betting market along with each team's schedule, among other factors.
"The NFL's 2025 oligarchy consists of a clear top tier: the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Bills," ESPN’s Seth Walder wrote. "These teams are separated by at most a single point in FPI rating, meaning none of them would be favored by more than a single point over another on a neutral field. But there's a drastic, 1.8-point drop-off between the No. 5-ranked Bills and the No. 6-ranked Commanders.
"All five teams in the top tier have at least an 8% chance to win the Super Bowl, and there is a 50% chance that the Super Bowl winner is one of those five teams. No other team has greater than a 5% chance to win it all."
The Ravens have a 79% chance to make the playoffs, which is exceeded only by the Bills (81%). Baltimore has a 54% chance of winning the AFC North, with the Cincinnati Bengals being a distant second at 29%.
The Ravens kick off OTA practices on Tuesday with young players looking to prove themselves.
S Sanoussi Kane & S Beau Brade
I'm lumping these guys together (making this actually an 11-player list) because they're in a similar situation trying to show they can step into the No. 3 safety role opened by Ar'Darius Washington's recent Achilles injury. Kane and Brade were both strong special teams players last year and flashed in defensive action last preseason. Can they convince Baltimore's coaches and front office not to sign a veteran safety?
OLB Adisa Isaac
A talented third-round pick last year, Isaac was limited to just four games by injuries. When he was on the field, Isaac looked good. Now he has to stay healthy and prove that he's ready for a role in the Ravens' outside linebacker rotation.
CB T.J. Tampa
Like Isaac, Tampa is another second-year player who was limited by injuries as a rookie. He played in seven games and had 18 defensive snaps. The Ravens are looking to identify their No. 4 cornerback, which would play a critical defensive role if there were to be an injury. Tampa is a top contender along with Jalyn Armour-Davis.
K Tyler Loop
The rookie is in line to be the Ravens' kicker after Justin Tucker's release, but he still needs to win the job. The Ravens also signed undrafted rookie kicker John Hoyland, and there's always the chance of adding a veteran if more competition is needed. This will be Loop's best chance yet to prove he's ready for the job.
ILB Trenton Simpson
Simpson is looking to reestablish himself as the starting linebacker next to Roquan Smith. The two spent time together this offseason building their connection, and that will continue this summer as Simpson aims to show he's better now after gaining significant experience last year.
OLB David Ojabo
Ojabo's career has yet to launch, mostly due to injuries, but the Ravens still have high hopes for their talented 2022 second-round pick. After the addition of rookie Mike Green and good depth at the position, Ojabo has to win his spot this summer and show he's ready to reach his sky-high potential.
S Malaki Starks
The rookie first-round pick was expected to be an immediate impact player when the Ravens drafted him, and his role has only grown since Washington's injury. OTAs are a great time for Starks to grasp a better understanding of his assignments in the Ravens defense and build his relationship and communication with Kyle Hamilton.
RB Keaton Mitchell
Mitchell essentially had a redshirt season last year coming back from the major knee injury he suffered near the end of his explosive rookie season. Mitchell will look to show he's fully back and just as fast as before in hopes of carving out an offensive role in 2025.
QB Cooper Rush
After signing a two-year deal this offseason, this will be Rush's first full-team reps in a new Todd Monken offense and an important time for him to start feeling comfortable in the system and with his new targets.
WR/PR LaJohntay Wester
It remains to be seen how much the Ravens' top three wide receivers – Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and DeAndre Hopkins – participate in OTAs, which could leave the door open for Wester to prove he can be more than a punt returner in his rookie season.
Expect Derrick Henry to Continue to 'Challenge Age Milestones'
To mark that there are 100 days until the 2025 Kickoff Game, two articles with a 100 themes were published on Tuesday. Derrick Henry's outstanding career was highlighted in both.
Among ESPN’s Ben Solak’s 100 things to know was that Henry is the only 30-plus-year-old running back to rush for at least 1,900 yards in a season.
"It was last year, when Derrick Henry rushed for 1,921 yards on only 325 carries at 30 years old (5.9 yards per attempt is by far the best single-season mark of his career)," Solak wrote. "Henry looked like the Henry of old after his final two seasons in Tennessee tailed off statistically, and now he's on a new extension with a year under his belt in Baltimore's system.
"The record for the most rushing yards in an age-31 season belongs to Curtis Martin, who tallied 1,697 in 2004. As long as Henry keeps strapping them on, we can expect him to challenge the age milestones."
Pundit Predicts Nate Wiggins Will Be a 'Big Deal' This Season
Nate Wiggins continues to appear on pundits' lists of leading Year 2 breakout candidates.
Solak is the latest to recognize Wiggins, as he included the cornerback among 10 players or coaches "who will be big deals in the 2025 season."
"Wiggins was nominally the Ravens' CB2 last season, starting as a rookie opposite veteran Brandon Stephens. But he was functionally their CB1," Solak wrote. "Highly competitive and physical at the line of scrimmage, Wiggins played his best ball against his best opponents (Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Malik Nabers). He wasn't perfect, but rookie corners rarely are. If he plays with greater consistency, he'll be considered one of the league's better starting corners."
Roquan Smith Ranked Among Top Five Linebackers
Pro Football Focus’ Mason Cameron ranked the top 32 linebackers and placed them into tiers. Unsurprisingly, Roquan Smith was among the five Tier 1 players, landing at No. 4.
"On the surface, Smith's 66.8 PFF overall grade in 2024 would seem like a drop that would push him further down this list, but the personnel around him was a contributing factor," Cameron wrote. "After Kyle Hamilton's move back to safety in Week 11, Smith returned to form. His 81.8 PFF coverage grade from that point on ranked fourth at the position — much closer to his usual level of play.
"A full season with that structure will have Smith right back in the elite conversation."
The players ranked above Smith were (in order): San Francisco 49ers' Fred Warner, Eagles' Zack Baun, and Commanders' Bobby Wagner.
