Late for Work: What Pundits Expect in Ravens-Steelers Winner-Take-All Game

Large Majority of Pundits Pick Ravens to Win Showdown for AFC North Title

For much of this season, it seemed inevitable that the AFC North winner would be decided in the regular-season finale between the Ravens and Steelers.

This time a week ago, however, it was a long shot. Unless the Ravens beat the playoff-bound Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field and the Steelers were upset by the last-place Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh would be the division champion, rendering the Week 18 game meaningless.

The Ravens took care of their business last Saturday night,then watched the Browns knock off the Steelers in a nail-biter the following day. And now it's winner-take-all when the Ravens (8-8) face the Steelers (9-7) at Acrisure Stadium on "Sunday Night Football."

Baltimore, which is seeking an unprecedented third consecutive AFC North championship, is favored by 3.5 points, and a large majority of the pundits we sampled (41 of 48) picked the Ravens to prevail in what figures to be a slugfest between the archrivals.

Here's what pundits are saying about the game:

The Ravens' ground game will be the difference.

NBC Sports’ Chris Simms: "I went back and watched [the Steelers' 27-22 win over the Ravens] from a few weeks ago. The Ravens dominated the Steelers. Dominated. If they just stay with two tight ends on the field or Patrick Ricard at fullback and they just stay with the run game, they will have their way against Pittsburgh. They had their way against Pittsburgh. They got screwed over by a lot of bad calls and got a little unlucky in that game."

The Baltimore Banner’s Kyle Goon: "Lamar Jackson is a bit of a wild card compared to previous seasons given how his play has fluctuated, but if the Ravens can stick to a ground-based game plan and not ask too much of the passing attack, they should advance (against all odds) to the playoffs."

USA Today’s Jordan Mendoza: "It will be a physical battle, but it favors Baltimore if Derrick Henry continues mowing down everything in his path. The Ravens take the AFC North crown."

Could the return of Steelers NT Derrick Harmon slow the Ravens' running game?

ESPN’s Brooke Pryor: "Pittsburgh's biggest offseason priority revolved around stopping the run after Ravens RB Derrick Henry rushed for 186 yards and two touchdowns in the Steelers' wild-card loss. Though Pittsburgh won the first meeting a month ago, the Steelers were still outrushed by 183 yards. This time, though, rookie DT Derrick Harmon will play. The Steelers' run defense has improved by 80 yards when Harmon plays."

Not having WR DK Metcalf will be the Steelers' downfall.

NFL.com’s Dan Parr: "The main reason I'm going with the Ravens on the road is the absence of DK Metcalf, who is serving out the remainder of his two-game suspension for initiating a physical confrontation with a fan during Pittsburgh's Week 16 win over the Lions. With no Metcalf, Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the offense could only muster two field goals last week in a loss to a Browns team that had allowed 27.8 points per game in its previous four contests. The 42-year-old QB isn't the same guy without his WR1, as his numbers with and without Metcalf on the field show: On field: 67.2% completion rate, 7.1 yards per attempt, 23:7 TD-INT ratio, 99.9 passer rating. Off field: 56.7% completion rate, 4.7 yards per attempt, 0:0 TD-INT ratio, 69.1 passer rating."

The Athletic’s Vic Tafur: "Without the suspended DK Metcalf last week, Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed a season-low 38 percent of his pass attempts to wide receivers (8 of 21), including 1 of 9 passes thrown to wideouts at least 10 yards downfield. Metcalf, out again, has more receptions from Rodgers on 10-plus-yard throws (17) than all other Pittsburgh wide receivers combined (15)."

The Ravens defense presents a stiff challenge for the Steelers offense.

The Baltimore Banner’s Jonas Shaffer: "I remain skeptical about Aaron Rodgers' prime-time bona fides. The Ravens' run defense has emerged as one of the NFL's best over the past two months, and their cornerbacks should — again, should — have the advantage in man coverage over a DK Metcalf-less receiving corps. Pittsburgh didn't have a single first down in the fourth quarter of its Week 14 win over the Ravens, and I'm not sure how much better it'll look in Week 18."

Steelers RB Kenneth Gainwell is an X factor.

ESPN’s Matt Bowen: "Gainwell caught six of seven targets in the first meeting with the Ravens, but he produced only 27 receiving yards. It was all checkdowns, swings and jet looks. While Gainwell will continue to operate as an underneath outlet for Rodgers on Sunday, let's see if Steelers coordinator Arthur Smith can expand the running back's role as a receiver. Gainwell has the traits to flex from the backfield as a vertical target, and he can shake coverage underneath on choice/option routes. With the pass-game limitations created by the absence of Metcalf, Gainwell can create some juice as a matchup piece for the Steelers."

The Steelers didn't look good last week, but they'll win this week.

Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio: "The Steelers have a strange habit of making us think they're good before losing, and of making us think they're bad before winning."

The Athletic’s Mike DeFabo: "My head tells me the Steelers will lose. However, the fact that Vegas made the Steelers a home underdog and this has been such a classic Mike Tomlin season (including last week's loss), I think Tomlin's team somehow wins a weird, last-second thriller."

The 33rd Team's Steve Palazzolo: "After last week's utter disappointment where [the Steelers] had five drives in the fourth quarter with a Hall of Fame quarterback to win the division and they failed on all five of those … right as you're ready to give up on the Steelers, they're probably going to come back and win this game."

Ravens May Have Become 'NFL's Most Physical Team'

The Ravens have long prided themselves on being a physical team, and they have been especially adept at bullying opponents on both sides of the ball as of late.

Shaffer noted that the Ravens have knocked more than a dozen players out of the game over the past four weeks.

"The Ravens have picked a good time to turn into maybe the NFL's most physical team. … The Ravens have generally won the war of attrition. And now they're starting to win the battles in both trenches," Shaffer wrote. "Since Week 10, the Ravens' run defense ranks first in the NFL in expected points added per carry, third in success rate, third in yards per carry allowed (3.7) to designed runs and fourth in yards allowed per game (72.3) to designed runs, according to analytics site RBSDM.com.

"On offense, though, is where the Ravens finally look like the Ravens of yesteryear. Since Week 14, they've rushed for an NFL-high 884 yards. The gap between them and the second-place Los Angeles Rams (237 yards) is roughly equivalent to the gap between the Rams and the 24th-place New Orleans Saints in that span."

Tyler Linderbaum Among Top 5 in Free Agent Rankings

Tyler Linderbaum is one of the best centers in the NFL, and he'll be paid like it this offseason.

Linderbaum, who is in the final year of his rookie contract, was ranked No. 4 on The Ringer’s Austin Gayle’s list of the top 40 players set to hit free agency.

"Linderbaum will be a coveted center because he moves extremely well, especially as a run blocker," Gayle wrote. "He has unlocked so much for the Ravens' run game because he's an extremely talented athlete with foot speed and balance that are rare at his position. He can pull, scoop, and reach with his arms, and he is lightning quick to get to the second level on his feet, where he regularly beats linebackers and safeties because of his leverage and positioning alone.

"He's also a menace when moving in space and blocking in front of screens. Linderbaum was named to his third consecutive Pro Bowl this season, and he's ranked eighth or better among qualifying centers in PFF's run-blocking grade every year of his career."

The Ravens didn't pick up Linderbaum's fifth-year option, but General Manager Eric DeCosta made it clear that signing him to a contract extension is the goal.

"I expect that Baltimore will get a deal done with Linderbaum well before March, but until it does, he deserves to be high on this list," Gayle wrote.

The other Ravens player in the rankings was tight end Isaiah Likely at No. 27.

"Likely is a rare athlete and only 25 years old, but he just hasn't been consistent enough to warrant the monster multi-year extension many expected would be coming for him," Gayle wrote. "Baltimore re-signed 30-year-old veteran tight end Mark Andrews to a three-year, $39.3 million extension in early December, possibly signaling that Likely will test the market in March."

Quick Hits

Yesterday's Most Read: Lamar Jackson Says He Will 100% Play vs. Steelers

• Safety Malaki Starks and inside linebacker Teddye Buchanan were named to ESPN’s All-Rookie second team.

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