Late for Work: What Pundits Expect in Ravens-Dolphins Game

Baltimore Is Near Unanimous Pick to Win in Miami

The Ravens ended a four-game losing streak last week, Lamar Jackson is back, and the team is healthier than it has been all season.

Optimism abounds for the Ravens (2-5), who are looking to win back-to-back games for the first time this season when they face the Dolphins (2-6) in Miami on "Thursday Night Football."

The oddsmakers and pundits like the Ravens' chances. Baltimore is a 7.5-point favorite over a Miami team coming off a 34-10 upset of the Atlanta Falcons, and 41 of 43 pundits who got their picks in by Thursday morning predicted a Ravens victory. ESPN's Seth Wickersham and Sports Illustrated's John Pluym were the only contrarians.

One pundit – NFL Network's Grant Gordon – predicted the Ravens to win 59-10, the same score the Ravens won by in Miami in 2019.

While Jackson returning after missing the past three games with a hamstring injury is the biggest headline surrounding the game, ESPN's Dan Orlovsky and The Baltimore Banner’s Jonas Shaffer pointed out something that shouldn't be overlooked regarding the two-time MVP's return to the field.

For the first time this season, Jackson will be leading an offense that's fully intact.

"We haven't seen this version of the Ravens that we're going to watch on Thursday night," Orlovsky said. "We haven't seen Lamar have the lineup of Ronnie Stanley, and Mark Andrews, and Patrick Ricard, and DeAndre Hopkins all on the field together. … And the addition of a player like Keaton Mitchell and more touches for him.

"I know that the chips are stacked against them, but this is a great unknown. This is a team that is lurking out there, because with Lamar back and everybody healthy – certainly on the offensive side – this team should look like the Super Bowl one we thought."

Shaffer broke it down further.

"Because of early-season injuries, Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken has had only a handful of opportunities to package his preferred personnel on the field together," Shaffer wrote. "Tight end Isaiah Likely didn't make his season debut until Week 4. Fullback Patrick Ricard was sidelined until Sunday. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley has played just 73% of the team's offensive snaps. All of which has kept Monken from tapping into his most experienced groupings.

"Last year, for example, the Ravens ran a team-high 84 plays — or nearly five per game — with Jackson; running back Derrick Henry; their top two wide receivers, Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman; their top two tight ends, Mark Andrews and Likely; and their usual starting offensive line. Together, they averaged 6.7 yards per play, which would've led the NFL. This year? The Ravens have run just four plays total with Jackson, Henry, Flowers, Bateman, Andrews, Likely and their usual starting offensive line together. They've averaged just 3.8 yards on those three pass plays and one run."

Here's more of what pundits are saying about the game:

The Ravens will run all over the Dolphins.

The Baltimore Sun’s Sam Cohn: "Before beating the Falcons on Sunday, the Dolphins owned the worst rushing defense in football, allowing 159.3 yards per game. Seven of their first eight opponents rushed for at least 100 yards. They slowed down Atlanta's Bijan Robinson because their game plan centered around one of the league's top backs. With Henry, Jackson and Keaton Mitchell's handful of breakout runs, there's far more to account for with Baltimore."

CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco: "I think this will be about Derrick Henry running it for the Ravens. The Dolphins played well in beating the Falcons last week, but this will be much tougher."

Jackson and a rejuvenated defense give the Ravens the advantage.

ESPN’s Mina Kimes: "I think the improvements [to the defense] have stabilized it enough, coupled with the return of Lamar, to where I feel comfortable picking them in this game."

The Ravens might win big.

The Baltimore Sun’s Bennett Conlin: "The Ravens' defense is trending in the right direction since adding Alohi Gilman to free up Kyle Hamilton to play closer to the line of scrimmage, and nobody has questions about Todd Monken's offense when No. 8 is available at quarterback. This could be a blowout."

The Ravens will win, but it'll be close.

The Baltimore Sun’s Josh Tolentino: "Expect a tighter game than most anticipate, but Jackson's presence should steady the visitors sideline as Baltimore escapes the Week [9] matchup at Hard Rock Stadium to build its first win streak of the season."

The Athletic’s Vic Tafur: "New pregame tradition for the Dolphins: Somebody poke Tua Tagovailoa in the eye. A swollen eye helped him look like the Tua of old, averaging just 2.37 seconds per throw on 26 passing attempts in the shocking rout of the Falcons. The obvious side is Lamar Jackson in his comeback game, but the Dolphins showed up the last time they were on national TV, and they'll keep it close at home here."

The Ravens defense is still struggling to get pressure on the quarterback, but it might not matter against the Dolphins.

NFL.com’s Eric Edholm: "Luckily for the Ravens, Tagovailoa has thrown the most interceptions in the NFL this season when not pressured, with seven. If the Ravens can control Miami's run game and contain Jaylen Waddle – with Tyreek Hill and Darren Waller on IR – they should be in decent shape even if the pressure isn't consistently fierce."

Analytics Expert Projects Ravens to Win AFC North

There's been a lot of talk this week about the Ravens being the betting favorites to win the AFC North despite trailing the first-place Pittsburgh Steelers by two games. A number of pundits agree with the oddsmakers, but what do the analytics say?

Analytics expert Cynthia Frelund of NFL Network and The 33rd Team, for one, is projecting Baltimore to capture an unprecedented third consecutive AFC North championship.

Frelund pointed to the Ravens defense trending up and the Steelers defense trending down as a reason for the projection.

"The entire [Ravens] defense is getting healthier," Frelund said. "We saw Kyle Hamilton last week against the Bears line up in a completely different spot. He rushed the passer 10 times, he got two pressures, [and] he also had his first run stop of the season. He's back to being that kind of joker-type [player] that we saw from him when he's fully healthy normally."

Regarding the Steelers defense, which has given up 68 points over their past two games (both losses), Frelund said: "For whatever reason this year, you can pass on the Steelers. … I just don't feel like this Steelers defense is built to support an offense where maybe they need a little bit more help at the wide receiver position."

With Ravens Needing an Edge Rusher, Could Matthew Judon Be an Option?

The prevailing opinion is that the Ravens will look to acquire an edge rusher before the Nov. 4 trade deadline. Two players mentioned as potential targets are the Dolphins' Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, but ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler said Miami is more likely to listen to offers for former Raven Matthew Judon.

"While the Dolphins might not be moving a bunch of players at the deadline, they are open to trading pass rusher Matthew Judon," Fowler wrote. "He's the name I keep hearing when it comes to their rushers. Teams say Jaelan Phillips has the most value of Miami's edge rushers, but there's not much buzz that Miami is motivated to move him so far."

The 33-year-old Judon, who played with the Ravens from 2016-2020, has yet to record a sack in his seven games with the Dolphins this season.

Quick Hits

Yesterday's Most Read: Late for Work: Pundit Says Lamar Jackson-Derrick Henry Combo, Improved Defense Will Lead Ravens to AFC North Title

• Cornerback Nate Wiggins received honorable mention on Next Gen Stats’ ranking of the top 10 shutdown cornerbacks.

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