"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." – Robert Seneca
Roman philosopher Robert Seneca could have worked for the Ravens.
The Ravens pour endless hours and resources into researching prospects for the draft. They travel all over the country. They double and triple check each other.
But when it comes to making the right pick, sometimes it just boils down to luck. Sometimes you don't get the player you coveted, or sometimes that player just doesn't work out for a variety of reasons.*
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"I think there is a lot of luck with the draft," Assistant General Manager Eric DeCosta said Wednesday. "We try to make it a science. In the end, it's probably more art than science."
The Ravens and fans got another reminder of luck playing a role in the draft with the story about quarterback Brady Quinn. The Ravens tried to trade up to get him but were outbid by the Browns.
Quinn ended up struggling in the league. The Ravens drafted eventual Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco the next year.
It's also hard to predict who will be hits and who will be misses. Sometimes a seventh-round pick can turn into a Pro Bowler and a first-rounder can be out of the league in a few years.
Generally, higher picks have more success than lower ones. But it's not an exact science.
"That's why we value picks as much as we do," DeCosta said. "The more picks you have, the more chance you have of getting lucky on a guy."
The Ravens do the best they can to maximize their luck. That includes hiring Director Of Football Analytics Sandy Weil before the 2013 season. Part of Weil's job is to dig into the draft and try to find trends on what attributes lead to success.
"We try to look at statistics and different things – analytics," DeCosta said.
"In the end, it comes down to players – the motivation of the players, the passion of the players, how they fit your scheme. Injuries are a big factor, football intelligence is a big factor, toughness is a big factor. Those are intangibles; those are hard to measure."
