After 100k Simulations, Model Predicts Ravens as Super Bowl Favorites
With the 2025 schedule released, data models and analytics have been projecting the upcoming season, and The Athletic’s Austin Mock's NFL Projection Model sees the Ravens as the best in the NFL.
The model ran 100,000 simulations of the 2025 season and the Ravens came out on top the most.
"The Baltimore Ravens have the highest odds to win the Super Bowl at 11.9 percent, according to the model," The Athletic's Jeff Howe wrote. "The Buffalo Bills, at 10.1 percent, have the second-best projection, representing a fairly significant gap between the Ravens and the field.
"The Ravens' biggest hurdle appears to be the strong competition in the AFC North. They have a 55.2 percent chance to win the division, which is only the fifth-highest mark in the league. Whether they come out on top in the regular season, the model believes the Ravens will be battle-tested with that schedule."
It's no surprise the Ravens will be battle-tested, seeing as they're set to face both AFC Championship before Week 5. Their success in the model doesn't surprise The Athletic, either.
"The Ravens have won 25 regular-season games over the past two seasons, with quarterback Lamar Jackson winning an MVP in 2023 and nearly claiming the award again in 2024," Howe wrote. "They get electric play out of the most important position, still have their core in place and will be well-coached. Expect the Ravens to be a force once again next season."
Ravens–Bills Named Best Sunday Night Game
Rather than saving the best for last, the NFL scheduled some of the best football out of the gate. According to The Athletic’s Mike Jones, the best "Sunday Night Football" game is scheduled for Week 1 when the Ravens head to Buffalo.
"Rivals face off once again as Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen — two of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the game, and the two most recent NFL MVPs — look to set an early tone for the season and earn a victory that could help their team come playoff seeding time," Jones wrote. "The last time these teams met, Allen and the Bills edged Jackson's Ravens 27-25 to earn a trip to last season's AFC Championship Game."
Howe made mention of the Week 1 slate in his winners/losers of the schedule release. Fans are getting a brilliant start.
"The league threw four haymakers to launch the prime-time schedule, as the Philadelphia Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday; the Kansas City Chiefs meet the Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil on Friday; the Baltimore Ravens visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday; and the Bears host the Vikings on Monday," Howe wrote. "Rest up and take it easy on the cholesterol the week before. That'll be a fun stretch to open the season."
Reactions to Ravens Agreeing to Terms With John Jenkins
The Ravens agreed to terms with veteran nose tackle John Jenkins on Friday, bolstering their defensive trenches. The Baltimore Sun’s C.J. Doon and The Baltimore Banner’s Jonas Shaffer noted the workload Jenkins delivered for the Las Vegas Raiders and how he can fit with the Ravens in 2025.
"Jenkins figures to join a rotation with Nnamdi Madubuike, Travis Jones and Broderick Washington in Baltimore, which also drafted Virginia Tech defensive lineman Aeneas Peebles in the sixth round. But Peebles is listed at just 282 pounds and is projected to be more of a backfield penetrator than a run stuffer who takes on double teams," Doon wrote. "Adding a big-bodied lineman was one of the last boxes to check this offseason for the Ravens, who also did not re-sign lineman Brent Urban after he played 17.3% of the defensive snaps last season."
"Jenkins played 55% of the Raiders' defensive snaps last season, but he should have a smaller role in Baltimore," Shaffer wrote. "With Nnamdi Madubuike, Travis Jones and Broderick Washington leading the way for the Ravens' defensive line last season, Pierce played just 20.4% of the defensive snaps."
Early 53-Man Roster Projection Sees Two 2022 Draftees Fighting for Spots
Decisions on who will make the initial 53-man roster will be a challenging task for the Ravens this offseason. Across the board, they have starting talent and depth, which could see a few familiar players contending for a spot.
Russell Street Report’s Nikhil Mehta sees two players from the 2022 draft class – David Ojabo and Jalyn Armour-Davis – fighting for a spot.
Edge
Roster lock: Odafe Oweh, Kyle Van Noy, Mike Green, Tavius Robinson, Adisa Isaac
Bubble-OUT: David Ojabo, Malik Hamm
Longshot: Kaimon Rucker, Kiwun Black
"Ojabo will have to do more than just flash to prove he deserves a roster spot. His $1.8 million salary might get him through waivers, where his roster exemption would allow him to be an extra 17th practice squad player with up to three gameday activations for the season. The Ravens can figure it out from there. Hamm and Rucker could make some noise, but there just doesn't seem to be room for a sixth EDGE, much less a seventh."
Cornerback
Roster lock: Marlon Humphrey, Nate Wiggins, Chidobe Awuzie, T.J. Tampa
Bubble-IN: Bilhal Kone, Robert Longerbeam
Bubble-OUT: Jalyn Armour-Davis
Longshot: Reuben Lowery, Keyon Martin, Marquise Robinson
"At this point, staying healthy won't be enough for Armour-Davis. He's been plagued by injuries over his first three seasons, and he'll have to show he's developed in spite of that to earn a roster spot. The former fourth-rounder is in the last year of his contract, so it makes more sense to keep and develop the team's two rookie draft picks. My estimation of Kone has grown substantially since the draft, and the Ravens need to develop a backup nickel, which should allow Longerbeam to make the team if he can keep up on special teams."
Quick Hits
This Weekend's Most Read: Five Predictions Based Off Ravens' 2025 Schedule
- Joe Flacco goes No. 4 overall in a PFF’s 2008 NFL re-draft. Ravens pick offensive tackle Jake Long at No. 18.
