Analytics Model Projects Jaire Alexander to Lead League in Interceptions
NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund’s model for predicting individual statistical leaders for 2025 points to a big season for cornerback Jaire Alexander.
Frelund's simulations project the two-time All-Pro, who signed with the Ravens this offseason, to lead the league in interceptions with five.
The projection bodes well for a Ravens defense that is focused on getting more takeaways.
"Part of the problem with forecasting [interceptions] is that opposing QBs are generally smart enough to not throw in the direction of defenders who are, by talent and skill level, best suited to pick the ball off," Frelund wrote. "The logic of my model here is that the Ravens' defense will see a high volume of passes as their opponents attempt to keep pace with Baltimore's potent offense. The Ravens also have the NFL's second-highest-rated secondary, according to my model. Alexander's style of play and the potential volume of passes coming his way lead this projection."
Five interceptions would match Alexander's career-high, which he set in 2022 with the Green Bay Packers. His ball hawking skills have been evident in practice this summer.
The key for Alexander is staying healthy, as he's played a total of 14 games over the past two seasons. Alexander hasn't practiced since Aug. 9 and recently underwent treatment for his knee, but Head Coach John Harbaugh said he should be available for the regular-season opener against the Buffalo Bills.
Frelund projected leaders in 10 other categories. Her model has quarterback Lamar Jackson second in total touchdowns (39) and fifth in passing touchdowns (35), and running back Derrick Henry second in rushing yards (1,505) and third in rushing touchdowns (12).
Ravens Projected As Slight Favorites to Win AFC Championship
Speaking of projections, The Athletic’s Austin Mock’s NFL projection model has the Ravens as the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
The model gives the Ravens an 11.8% chance to win the conference title. The Kansas City Chiefs (11.2%) and Buffalo Bills (11.1%) are close behind.
The Ravens are a heavy favorite (55%) to win an unprecedented third straight AFC North crown. The Cincinnati Bengals (32%) have the second-best odds.
"That's because while the Ravens and Bengals offenses will be comparably excellent, with both quarterbacks in the thick of the MVP race, that's where the comparison ends," Mock wrote. "Baltimore should field a solid defense, while my model projects the Bengals defense to, once again, be a below-average unit that will ultimately keep them from accomplishing greatness."
Ravens Are No. 2 in Watchability Rankings
ESPN’s Ben Solak ranked all 32 teams based on watchability, using the criteria of big plays, close games, star players, and "cool scheme stuff."
The Ravens landed at No. 2.
"If you don't like Derrick Henry standing next to Lamar Jackson in the same backfield, you don't like the same football I like," Solak wrote. "That's about as scary as a backfield has ever been, full stop. And it isn't just that they're good. It's the way that they're good. Henry's breakaway runs are like avalanches, seen long before they hit, gaining speed and power as they grow. Jackson's are like lightning – sudden, unpredictable and spectacular. And that's just the running ability. Let's not forget that the two-time MVP had 41 passing touchdowns last season and led all quarterbacks in explosive pass rate. Fun stuff.
"The Ravens are also famously capable of a fourth-quarter collapse, regularly producing some of the more preposterous win probability charts – bad for the team, good for watchability."
The Washington Commanders, who host the Ravens in Saturday's preseason finale, took the No. 1 spot in Solak's rankings because of the number of close games they played last season and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels' electric play and flair for the dramatic.
Isaiah Likely's Recovery Status Something to Monitor As Final Roster Decisions Near
The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec identified several questions that will help shape the Ravens' final roster decisions. Among them is the status of tight end Isaiah Likely.
Likely underwent foot surgery three weeks ago and could be available as soon as Week 1, but that is yet to be determined.
"If the Ravens are confident he'll play within the first couple of weeks, there's no decision to make," Zrebiec wrote. "Likely would join Mark Andrews and Charlie Kolar as the three tight ends on the roster. If the Ravens feel it's a Hail Mary that Likely will be able to play within the first few weeks, they could start him on IR, and he'd be eligible to return to the field in time for Week 5. That would create a roster spot elsewhere because Baltimore probably wouldn't need to add another tight end with Andrews, Kolar and fullback Patrick Ricard on the roster."
With the Ravens having games against the Bills, Detroit Lions, and Chiefs during the first four weeks of the season, Zrebiec said it wouldn't be surprising if Likely isn't placed on IR.
"If there's even a chance he'll play in those first four games, the Ravens will probably want to keep hopes alive," Zrebiec wrote.
Quick Hits
Yesterday's Most Read: Practice Report: Lamar Jackson Is OK After Getting Foot Stepped On
- ESPN’s Field Yates has the Ravens selecting Penn State cornerback A.J. Harris in the first round of his first 2026 mock draft.
