Large Majority of Pundits Predict a Ravens Victory in Kansas City
Whenever Lamar Jackson's Ravens and Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs have squared off, it was billed as a showdown between heavyweights battling for AFC supremacy.
The narrative for this Sunday's meeting in Kansas City is different, as the aura of the two perennial Super Bowl contenders has taken a hit early this season.
The loser of the game will fall to 1-3, so it could be argued that the stakes are bigger for this contest than if both teams were undefeated.
While the Ravens and Chiefs have played below their standard through the first three weeks of the season, the general perception is that Baltimore is the better team. The Ravens are favored by 2.5 points on the road despite a 1-5 record against the Chiefs during the Jackson era, including an 0-3 mark at Arrowhead Stadium.
A large majority of the pundits we sampled (39 of 50) believe the Ravens will beat the team that has been described as their kryptonite.
Here's what pundits are saying about the game:
The Chiefs won't be able to keep up with the Ravens offense.
NFL.com’s Gennaro Filice: "The [Chiefs] offense's problems run deep, starting with a run game that's completely devoid of juice. With Isiah Pacheco (3.7 yards per carry) and Kareem Hunt (3.5 ypc) past their prime, K.C. doesn't have the horses to gash Baltimore on the ground like Detroit did on Monday night. The Chiefs, as presently constituted, simply lack the firepower to keep up with the league's top scoring offense."
The Athletic’s J.J. Bailey: "One of these teams is going to have its worst start to a season in 10 years. … It's not like either team is in a spiral, exactly, as Kansas City lost to two undefeated teams in the Chargers and Eagles, and Baltimore lost to the Lions and the 3-0 Bills. Both lost their two games by a total of nine points. But of the two, the Ravens look far more dangerous, having scored 111 points to KC's 60 and tripling their EPA per play. It's clear this iteration of the Chiefs roster is past its heyday, and the second wave has failed to materialize as Mahomes heads into his career's back nine, making the prospect of the franchise's worst start since 2015 much more significant to Kansas City than Baltimore."
The Ravens' defense and running game will bounce back after Monday night's disappointing performances.
The Los Angeles Times’ Sam Farmer: "Kansas City's offense looks slow and out of sync, while Baltimore has the NFL's most complete team on paper and Lamar Jackson is always a threat. Baltimore's defense and ground attack will control the game."
Tight end Isaiah Likely could be a difference-maker if he plays.
The Baltimore Banner’s Jonas Shaffer: "The Chiefs' defense last season was one of the NFL's worst at defending tight ends. If Isaiah Likely is cleared to make his season debut Sunday — Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken said he hopes to have him available — the Ravens could stress them again. … Likely, who missed most of training camp to recover from foot surgery, had a team-high nine catches for 111 yards and a touchdown — and nearly another — in the loss to Kansas City last season."
Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy, who is expected to return after suffering a shoulder injury in Week 1, should give the Kansas City offense a boost.
ESPN’s Mina Kimes: "Worthy being back is big. They haven't really had someone who could win on out-breakers in this offense. It's something they were doing with him. Even if he's not a deep threat, his ability to get yards after the catch could be big against this defense."
The Ravens will show why they're the better team.
ESPN’s Seth Walder: "Bold prediction: The Ravens will win by double digits. Detroit was able to run the ball incredibly effectively against the Ravens last week, and that gave it an edge. The Chiefs have no such threat, and without it, I think we'll see Baltimore as the clearly superior team over Kansas City."
NBC Sports’ Chris Simms: "The Ravens are in a different class than the Chiefs. … One team is 1-2 and not been impressive in any of the games. The other one is 1-2 and been impressive in all three games, just messed up the end of the games against some really damn good football teams. The Ravens are still really good."
The Ravens are the better team, but …
The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec: "I'm going [with the] Chiefs. I firmly believe the Ravens are a better team at the moment, but they have the look of a reeling team — and they never play well against Kansas City."
Mahomes will find a way.
CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco: "The Chiefs have offensive issues, while the Ravens have defensive problems. So who will get the best of it? I think, at home, Patrick Mahomes finds a way to score enough points to win it."
Sporting News’ Vinnie Iyer: "The Ravens will come into Arrowhead on a short week and have shown their share of defensive holes. The Chiefs will try to take advantage of that with an aggressive passing game early to get the Ravens out of their run-heavy element. Patrick Mahomes needs another big moment vs. Lamar Jackson late and gets it."
ESPN’s Kevin Clark: "This feels to me like a Chiefs voodoo game. It feels like a dropped interception into a receiver's hands for a 45-yard touchdown."
| Source | Prediction | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN | 8 of 10 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Baltimore Sun | Chiefs 31, Ravens 24 | “Based on the history between these teams, the propensity for [Chiefs Defensive Coordinator Steve] Spagnuolo to keep Lamar Jackson guessing and how downtrodden Baltimore’s defense is going into Arrowhead Stadium, expect the Chiefs to edge this one out.” — Sam Cohn |
| USA Today | 5 of 6 panelists pick Ravens | |
| NFL.com | 4 of 5 panelists pick Ravens | “It's crazy to think that one of these teams will head into next week at 1-3. It's even crazier to think it'll be the one that's played in five of the past six Super Bowls. And yet, that's the prediction here. Why? Because Kansas City has yet to deliver on its offseason promise of an aerial renaissance. Remember all that talk of stretching the field and loosening up opposing defenses? Through three games, this offense appears more constipated than before.” — Gennaro Filice |
| NFL Network | 9 of 10 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Sporting News | Chiefs 23, Ravens 20 | “The Ravens will come into Arrowhead on a short week and have shown their share of defensive holes. The Chiefs will try to take advantage of that with an aggressive passing game early to get the Ravens out of their run-heavy element. Patrick Mahomes needs another big moment vs. Lamar Jackson late and gets it.” — Vinnie Iyer |
| CBS Sports | 7 of 8 panelists pick Ravens | “This looked like it would be perhaps a matchup of unbeaten teams before the season. Now it's a little bit of a survival test. The Chiefs have offensive issues, while the Ravens have defensive problems. So who will get the best of it? I think, at home, Patrick Mahomes finds a way to score enough points to win it.” — Pete Prisco |
| Pro Football Talk | 2 of 2 panelists pick Ravens | “If the Ravens lose this one, things could get very ugly in Baltimore.”— Mike Florio |
| Sports Illustrated | 4 of 7 panelists pick Ravens |
Why the Ravens Shouldn't Panic After 1-2 Start
The Athletic’s Mike Jones looked at 16 teams and assessed whether they should panic or keep the faith.
The Ravens and Chiefs are on the list, and Jones concluded that neither should be in panic mode.
"The Ravens badly missed injured top defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike and edge rusher Kyle Van Noy against Detroit," Jones wrote. "They'll need other defenders to shoulder larger loads in their absences. Fortunately for Baltimore, things in the AFC North are also unstable elsewhere. Cincinnati will be without Joe Burrow for much of the season. Cleveland is limited by shaky quarterback play, and the Steelers are inconsistent.
"If Derrick Henry can cure his sudden fumblitis and if the defense can start getting some key stops, the Ravens have winnable games ahead (three straight home games: Texans, Rams, Bears, and a road trip to Miami) and could improve their positioning by the midpoint of the season."
Michael Pierce Addresses Whether He'd Consider Coming Out of Retirement
Former Ravens defensive tackle Michael Pierce was introduced as the Legend of the Game prior to the start of Monday night's contest against the Lions at M&T Bank Stadium. As the Lions proceeded to gash the injury-hampered Ravens defense for 224 rushing yards, Flock Nation was probably wishing Pierce, a run-stuffer during his eight seasons in Baltimore, could put on the pads and stop the bleeding.
The 32-year-old Pierce, who retired after last season, shot down any talk of a comeback during an appearance on the “Ravens Talk” podcast.
"I don't believe so," Pierce said with a smile. "I still work out on a daily basis. I don't run nearly as much as I should, especially if I was going to be playing in any games. They'd have to give me notice and they wouldn't be able to call me until, like, December at the earliest. I don't think I'll be putting them cleats back on this year."
Revisiting Hollywood Brown and Roquan Smith Trades
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell made hindsight evaluations for trades that occurred in 2022 and 2023. Here's a look at two that involved the Ravens:
WR Hollywood Brown to the Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals got: Brown, 2022 third-round pick
Ravens got: 2022 first-round pick
Cardinals draft pick became: Edge Myjai Sanders
Ravens draft pick became: C Tyler Linderbaum, P Jordan Stout
"Brown got off to a hot start in Arizona and was on pace to post a 122-catch, 1,374-yard, nine-touchdown season after six games, but a broken foot derailed his year. And by the time he came back, Kyler Murray was sidelined by a torn ACL. The two shared the field for only a handful of snaps in 2023, and after two seasons in the desert, Brown signed with the Chiefs in free agency. Sanders, the Cardinals' third-round pick, lasted only one year in Arizona.
"The Ravens traded down with the pick they got from the Cardinals and used it to draft Linderbaum, who has settled in as one of the better centers in football. Wide receiver was still a sore spot for the Ravens in 2022 after Rashod Bateman went down injured, but the addition of Zay Flowers in the 2023 draft gave Lamar Jackson his new top wideout.
"In hindsight: Win for the Ravens."
ILB Roquan Smith to the Ravens
Ravens got: Smith
Bears got: LB A.J. Klein, 2023 second- and fifth-round picks
Bears draft picks became: DL Gervon Dexter Sr., LB Noah Sewell
"Smith elevated his own game and Patrick Queen's game after arriving in Baltimore, earning the first of three consecutive first-team All-Pro nods. The Ravens signed Smith to a five-year, $100 million deal before free agency began, and although they ended up losing Queen to the rival Steelers, Smith has been a star for the Ravens on the interior since. Per the FTN Football Almanac, Smith made 19.6% of plays for the Baltimore defense last season, the second-highest rate for any off-ball linebacker in the league.
"The Bears used the second-round pick on Dexter, who has been a solid pass-rushing interior tackle, but they miss Smith. Chicago signed Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards in free agency, and although Edmunds was excellent in coverage last season, he has missed tackles at a much higher rate than his predecessor.
"In hindsight: Ravens win."
