Majority of Pundits Pick Houston to Beat Injury-Depleted Ravens in Baltimore
One of the best illustrations of the current state of the Ravens is that they are underdogs for Sunday's home game against the Houston Texans.
Houston (1-3), which won its first game of the season last week over the winless Tennessee Titans, is a 1.5-point favorite.
It's the first time the Ravens (1-3) have been underdogs this season. They were even favored at Buffalo in Week 1 and at Kansas City in Week 4.
Moreover, the Ravens are 13-2 all-time against the Texans (including two playoff wins) and 8-0 versus Houston in Baltimore. In games Lamar Jackson has started against them, the Ravens are 5-0, winning by scores of 34-10, 31-2, 25-9, 33-16, and 41-7.
Jackson, however, reportedly is unlikely to play Sunday. He has not practiced this week after suffering a hamstring injury that forced him out of the game against the Chiefs.
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said Thursday morning that Jackson's status for Sunday is "very much up in the air" but is trending toward not playing.
"When a starting quarterback doesn't get on the field Wednesday of a game week, often that indicates he is not going to play, although Lamar wants to play, so we will see where this takes us," Rapoport said.
Given Jackson's injury status, a majority of the pundits we sampled (34 of 56) picked the Texans to win.
Of course, Jackson is far from the only Raven dealing with an injury. Twelve players either did not practice or were limited on Thursday, including six who made the Pro Bowl last season. Conversely, every Texans starter practiced.
Here's what pundits are saying about the game:
This is a must-win for the Ravens.
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky: "You're playing a team that is 1-3. They are mightily struggling on the offensive line. I understand Lamar may not play. You still have one of the best offensive lines in football. You have a really good receiving corps. Two really good tight ends. You have a Hall of Famer at running back. And defensively, play physically. … Get two wins, and then make a decision on Lamar."
Without Jackson, the Ravens offense doesn't match up well against the Texans defense.
NFL.com’s Ali Bhanpuri: "Houston's defense ranks last in the NFL against QB scrambles and 30th against runs outside the tackles – two significant weaknesses a healthy Baltimore team would've been ideally suited to exploit. Alas, the Ravens are anything but whole entering the weekend. Despite his name, Cooper Rush was not built to run in the NFL; the Ravens' seasoned backup has amassed 51 yards on designed runs/scrambles over his eight-year career, per Next Gen Stats. (Because I know you're wondering, that's 6,352 yards short of Lamar Jackson's total.) And if Pro Bowler Ronnie Stanley (ankle) is a no-go, those Derrick Henry carries off tackle become a bit less frightening, too."
CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco: "The [Texans] defense is special. I think that will keep them in it and they win it late without Jackson on the field."
The Ravens have too many injuries to pull out a victory.
Pro Football Focus' Trevor Sikkema: "The Ravens are reeling. So many of their best players are not going to be out there this weekend, or if they are, they're not going to be anywhere near a hundred percent. I think [the Texans win] a low-scoring affair."
The Ravens' injury-ravaged defense will prove to be their undoing.
The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec: "I think [Cooper] Rush will allow the Ravens to be functional offensively, but I don't think he'll do enough to compensate for a defense that has allowed points in 11 of the opponent's last 14 drives."
The Ravens can win with Rush and a scrappy defense.
The Baltimore Banner’s Brandon Weigel: "This is why you go out in the offseason and get an established backup like Cooper Rush, owner of a 9-5 record with the Dallas Cowboys. If the Ravens were trotting Josh Johnson out there? Forget it. But Rush is a fine enough caretaker, and he should have the full complement of weapons he needs to do all that's asked of him. And, while the Baltimore defense is in dire straits with Nnamdi Madubuike out for the year and key players such as safety Kyle Hamilton, cornerback Marlon Humphrey and inside linebacker Roquan Smith trending toward missing the game, the ragtag Ravens will have just enough against a Texans offense averaging 16 points per game (29th in the NFL). With outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy set to return, the much-maligned pass rush will finally — finally — break out by bullying an offensive line that Pro Football Focus ranks as the second worst in the sport."
Feeding Derrick Henry is the key to a Ravens victory.
The Baltimore Banner’s Chris Korman: "Derrick Henry was once known for running all over the Texans when he played for the division rival Titans, and that's going to have to be the recipe again. (Don't look at his stats against Houston in his final year with Tennessee if you want to stay upbeat, though.)"
ESPN’s Seth Walder: "Bold prediction: Ravens RB Derrick Henry will record a season-high 22-plus rush attempts. The Texans have a ferocious pass rush but struggle to stop the run. QB Lamar Jackson (hamstring) could be out, so the Ravens are going to want to lean on the ground game."
| Source | Prediction | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN | 7 of 10 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Baltimore Sun | Texans 21, Ravens 13 | “Sure, they could do it. But it’s disingenuous to pick the Ravens. The Texans have the best defense in the NFL and the Ravens are trotting out a backup quarterback to operate an offense that has already endured confounding stretches of rhythm-less play. Houston’s offense is a respectable group that, even with its faults, looks to be moving in the right direction while Baltimore is reeling from one injury after another.” – Sam Cohn |
| USA Today | 4 of 6 panelists pick Texans | |
| NFL.com | 4 of 5 panelists pick Texans | “The Ravens still have a lot of (healthy) talent to believe John Harbaugh's group will find a way, but I think it's who they won't have that ultimately dooms them on Sunday.” — Ali Bhanpuri |
| NFL Network | 5 of 10 panelists pick Ravens | |
| Sporting News | Ravens 24, Texans 21 | “Houston found more of its running game in Week 5 and they also have a big-play, go-to wide receiver in Nico Collins. That will allow C.J. Stroud to produce well to keep up with Cooper Rush, who will be up to playing well. But Baltimore has a little extra juice to save its fading 1-3 season than the visitors.” — Vinnie Iyer |
| CBS Sports | 8 of 8 panelists pick Texans | “The Ravens are reeling, especially on defense, and now they might be without Lamar Jackson because of a hamstring injury. That's a big problem. The Texans won for the first time last week against the Titans and showed some life on offense. The defense is special. I think that will keep them in it and they win it late without Jackson on the field.” — Pete Prisco |
| Pro Football Talk | 1 of 2 panelists pick Ravens | “It’s no longer about desperation for the Ravens. It’s about simple, basic pride.”— Mike Florio |
| Sports Illustrated | 4 of 7 panelists pick Texans | |
| Baltimore Banner | 4 of 6 panelists pick Texans | “The Ravens have to muster a desperate effort to avoid a 1-4 start, but the Texans are in the same boat, and they’ll actually suit up their most important players.” – Childs Walker |
Two Analytics Models Give Ravens Favorable Odds to Make Playoffs
Whether the Ravens should still be regarded as contenders has been a hot topic around the NFL.
The Ringer’s Steven Ruiz said he can't write off the Ravens because Jackson always gives them a chance, but he leaned toward putting them in the "pretender" category.
"The defense is broken beyond repair, and the latest rash of injuries could destroy it completely," Ruiz wrote. "The Ravens' schedule does offer some hope, though. After their bye in Week 7, they will likely be favored in every game up until their Week 17 trip to Lambeau Field."
Zrebiec was asked to rate how much trouble the Ravens are in on a 1-10 scale. He gave it an eight, but added that he "could easily be talked into a nine."
"The Ravens just aren't doing anything well consistently," Zrebiec wrote. "They weren't playing well defensively when they were mostly healthy. Now, you subtract as many as 10 starters, including the former MVP quarterback, from the team for a few weeks, and I'm not sure we've seen their rock bottom. I do think they deserve the benefit of the doubt to some extent. They have been through tough stretches before, and they usually come out of them and salvage their season. Their schedule gets lighter, and as long as Jackson is back soon, they'll have a chance every week. But they are leaving themselves very little margin for error."
Opinions are just that, but what do the analytics say?
The Baltimore Sun’s C.J. Doon noted that two analytic models project the Ravens to make the playoffs.
"Entering a Week [5] game against the visiting Houston Texans with backup quarterback Cooper Rush likely stepping in for injured star Lamar Jackson, the NFL’s Next Gen Stats still give the Ravens a 64% chance of making the playoffs," Doon wrote. "That would increase to 74% with a victory and would only drop to 57% with a loss. That's pretty remarkable, considering only 17 NFL teams that lost four of their first five games would go on to make the playoffs, including the 2024 Los Angeles Rams (and nearly the 2024 Cincinnati Bengals).
"The Washington Post’s playoff forecast, which is produced by simulating every game 25,000 times, is even more bullish, giving the Ravens an 80% chance to make the postseason. That's much higher than the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers, who at 3-1 have a 59% chance to make the field. In fact, only the undefeated Buffalo Bills (4-0) have better odds than Baltimore at greater than 99%."
Jordan Stout Named to Sports Illustrated's Quarterly All-Pro Team
Punter Jordan Stout has been one of the bright spots for the Ravens this season. The 2022 fourth-round pick was named to Sports Illustrated’s Matt Verderame’s All-Pro Team for the first quarter of the season.
"Stout has punted only 12 times. However, he's been awesome when called upon, ranking first with 48.6 net yards per punt," Verderame wrote.
Hamilton and center Tyler Linderbaum were second-team selections.
