Would the Ravens have won Sunday night in Buffalo if they had gone for it on fourth-and-3, with 1:33 left to play?
We'll never know. The Ravens punted, and Josh Allen made them pay.
With Baltimore clinging to a 40-38 lead, Allen led the Bills 66 yards in nine plays despite having no timeouts. The game-winning drive culminated with Matt Prater's 32-yard, game-winning field goal as time expired. That completed a stunning 41-40 comeback victory by the Bills, who trailed 40-25 in the fourth quarter, but erased that deficit with 16 unanswered points.
Head Coach John Harbaugh hated the result and had a short night. Ravens' players and coaches have acknowledged that they've let too many fourth-quarter leads slip away in recent years.
"I do believe that we need to be really thoughtful of how we decide that we're going to approach those situations going forward," Harbaugh said.
However, Harbaugh wasn't second-guessing his decision to punt on fourth-and-3 from the Ravens' own 38. Going for it would've been a gamble, and Lamar Jackson said after the game that his legs were cramping down the stretch.
"Lamar was coming off the field at that point, I could see that something wasn't quite right," Harbaugh said. "If we get it, we win the game. If we don't get it, they're in field goal range.
"I'm not shying away from putting my defense out there. I trust our defense, and I'm going to trust our defense this year in a lot of big situations because our defense is going to be really, really good."
The Ravens' entire offensive possession that led to fourth-and-3 has also been a hot topic. Baltimore needed just one first down to ice the game but didn't get it.
Derrick Henry was held to a one-yard gain on first down. Before the next snap, Henry went to the sideline and was replaced by Justice Hill.
On second down, Zay Flowers was stopped for no gain on a jet sweep. The decision to run Flowers instead of Henry or Jackson may have looked curious and has been second-guessed. However, Harbaugh said the second-down play was a read option for Jackson, who elected to hand off to Flowers.
"You've seen Lamar keep that going forward before," Harbaugh said. "We took Derrick off the field because that's a Zay-Justice type play. Derrick doesn't really run those plays those much."
On third down, Jackson threw to DeAndre Hopkins for a six-yard gain, leading to the fourth-and-3. The Bills used their final timeout, Baltimore punted, and the Ravens didn't stop Allen from marching downfield quickly.
Harbaugh has been aggressive on fourth down in other situations, but he didn't sense Sunday night's late-game situation was the right time for that. He said the Ravens must live with the result and learn from it.
"Offensively and defensively, generally speaking, we try to be as aggressive as we can be," Harbaugh said. "Did we call the right plays? Hindsight, no, it didn't work. I'm not just saying that to blow it off.
"We're trying to keep a lead against Josh Allen or any of these great quarterbacks in this league. What's our mindset on defense? How are we going to approach this? How are we going to talk to one another on the sideline to try to find a way to get the win? It becomes kind of a situation, a game scenario, that we need to be really intentional about going forward."
