The Falcons have looked like a different team over their past two games compared to their first two games of the season.
Atlanta's quest for their first playoff appearance since 2017 started on the wrong foot. The Falcons opened the season with a 20-13 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, then got blown out by the Carolina Panthers, 34-3.
The main reason for Atlanta's early struggles was quarterback play, as their top two quarterbacks, Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa, were working their way back from injuries. That forced former Raven Cooper Rush into action, and he struggled.
Against the Steelers, he completed just 12 of 22 passes for 143 yards and a touchdown to go along with two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown by T.J. Watt.
Against the Panthers, Rush completed 10 of 17 passes for just 86 yards and committed three turnovers (two interceptions and one lost fumble).
Penix Jr. came back the following week, and Atlanta's season did a 180-degree turn. In Week 3, the Falcons beat the Green Bay Packers, 35-14, and are fresh off a 45-24 domination of the New Orleans Saints.
Penix Jr. has helped right the ship.
Righting the ship might be an understatement. After being on the verge of sinking, the ship is now cutting through the sea at remarkably high speeds.
Penix Jr. started 1-of-5 with an interception against Green Bay. Since then, he's completed 32 of 40 (73.5%) passes for 462 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers.
The No. 8 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Penix Jr. started the final three games of his rookie season and split time with Kirk Cousins last season. This season is on pace to be Penix Jr.'s best so far.
While one-third of Penix Jr.'s pass attempts have gone behind the line of scrimmage this season, he has the arm strength and willingness to push the ball downfield like he did so often in college.
Penix Jr. is also adept at avoiding sacks and taking care of the ball: his sack rate is 4.1% (over two percentage points below league average), and he also threw just three interceptions on 276 pass attempts last season.
While Penix Jr. has started strong in his own right, Atlanta also has two dangerous weapons at running back and wideout who have helped propel their offense, too.
Bijan Robinson and Drake London are one of the NFL's best running back-wide receiver duos.
If you asked AI to generate the perfect running back and it actually came to life a-la Weird Science, it would probably look something like Bijan Robinson.
Another former top-10 pick, Robinson has seemingly everything. Power. Speed. Patience. Vision. An ability to go from 0 to 60 and 60 to 0 in the blink of an eye. If there's an open running lane, he won't miss it, and if there isn't an open running lane, he can create one by making defenders miss. His 54 missed tackles forced rank second behind Kenneth Walker III of the Kansas City Chiefs, per Next Gen Stats.
Robinson is like a human Google Maps: if there's traffic in front of him, he can re-route himself to open space in an instant. That works well in a stretch zone running scheme that aims to present multiple lanes to merge onto.
As if that wasn't enough, Robinson is also second in receptions and receiving yards among running backs since 2023, behind only Christian McCaffrey.
Robinson, who led the NFL in scrimmage yards last year and is second in scrimmage yards this year, has also averaged the most scrimmage yards in primetime since 2000. Behind him is on the depth chart is another B. Robinson (Brian Robinson Jr.), who has four touchdowns over the past two weeks.
Then, there's London, a 6-foot-4 behemoth who's had at least 800 receiving yards in all four of his full NFL seasons. He had 194 receiving yards two weeks ago against the Packers.
London, another former top-10 pick, has been especially effective with Penix Jr. at the helm: in London's 16 career games with Penix Jr. at quarterback, he has 105 catches for 1,577 yards and nine touchdowns. Of note, the Ravens have allowed at least seven catches and 80 yards to four different wideouts already this season.
Overall, the Falcons are soaring offensively. They have scored a touchdown in eight straight quarters. They have the NFL's second-lowest percentage of drives ending in a turnover and the lowest three-and-out rate. They have 119 more yards after contact than the next-closest team. Robinson and London have combined for more scrimmage yards over the past two weeks than 16 teams in the same time span.
"I think they have done a good job of building it around [Michael Penix Jr.], letting him know the pieces that he has, where he does not have to try to make the splash play," Defensive Coordinator Anthony Weaver said. "If he just delivers the ball to these guys, they will make the splash play for him. But when his number has been called to deliver and deliver downfield throws, he has a cannon."
What's also helped the Falcons is that their offense hasn't been doing all the heavy lifting.
Atlanta's defense has been elite at defending the run and pressuring the quarterback.
The Falcons are allowing the fewest rushing yards per game. Part of the low rushing total is because they forced the Packers and Saints into a pass-heavy game script in the second half, but the Falcons are also strong on a carry-to-carry basis, as they're allowing the fewest rushing yards per attempt (2.7) as well.
Atlanta also has the second-highest pressure rate despite blitzing at the third-lowest rate in the league, per SumerSports. The Falcons are the only team that has five different players with at least 10 pressures, per Next Gen Stats – defensive lineman Gervon Dexter Sr., defensive lineman Cameron Thomas, defensive lineman Brandon Dorlus, outside linebacker Za'Darius Smith, and defensive lineman Samson Ebukam.
The unit has exceeded preseason expectations, at least according to how much Atlanta spent on players during the offseason. Thomas, Smith and Ebukam are all on one-year deals. Dorlus was a fourth-round pick two years ago. Defensive lineman Maason Smith, who was traded by Jacksonville after just two seasons with the team, is on pace for a career year, and sixth-round rookie Harold Perkins Jr. has been one of the best first-year linebackers in the NFL.
What's even more impressive is that the Falcons have accomplished all of this without their pair of 2025 first-round pass rushers, Jalon Walker and James Pearce.
The Falcons haven't defended the pass as well as they have the run, but the numbers don't tell the full story.
Atlanta has allowed the third-most passing yards through four games. But again, the Packers and Saints passed a lot in the second half. Jordan Love and Tyler Shough combined for 598 passing yards against the Falcons, but they also combined for a whopping 101 pass attempts. That's a lowly 5.9 yards per attempt.
The only game where Atlanta's pass defense struggled came against Bryce Young and the Panthers, when Young had 287 passing yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers.
One of the Falcons' breakout stars on defense this season has been cornerback C.J. Henderson. He already has six passes defensed, including three against the Packers.
Henderson also had a forced fumble and fumble recovery when he ripped the ball out of Saints running back Kendre Miller's grasp.
Atlanta has rarely ever had a top-tier defense in recent memory. Since Matt Ryan's rookie season in 2008, the Falcons have finished with a top-10 scoring defense just three times. If they keep up their near-unprecedented momentum on Sunday, Baltimore could endure tough sledding on the road.
