Most Pundits Expect Close Game, But Few Pick Ravens to Win
Lamar Jackson's full participation at practice this week bodes well for his availability for Sunday's game at Buffalo. His return couldn't come at a better time.
After losing two of three while Jackson was sidelined with a high ankle sprain, including a blowout to the Cincinnati Bengals last week, the Ravens (4-3) are in last place in the AFC North and on the outside looking in at the playoffs if the season ended today.
Now they have the daunting task of facing Josh Allen and the AFC East-leading Bills (5-1), who have the NFL's No. 1 scoring offense.
Even with Jackson trending in the right direction, an overwhelming majority of the pundits we sampled (48 of 52) picked the Bills, who are 3-point favorites, to win. Only ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, Kathleen Maldonado, Ben Solak, and The Baltimore Banner's Brandon Weigel went with the Ravens.
The prevailing opinion is that it will be a high-scoring, close game. All 28 of the pundits who predicted the score have it being a one-score game, including 12 who have it being decided by three points or fewer.
Here's a look at what pundits are saying about the game:
The Ravens are overmatched against the Bills.
The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec: "I just can't see the struggling Ravens defense doing enough against Allen and company to give Baltimore a chance. This one could get ugly if the Ravens remain stuck in neutral with their running game."
The Athletic’s Vic Tafur: "Have you seen the Ravens' pass defense? On obvious passing downs, 40 percent of the passes are thrown to "open" receivers (at least 3 yards of separation), the third-highest rate in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. There's more. The Ravens play a lot of zone, and Josh Allen leads all qualified QBs in EPA per dropback against zone coverage (0.3)."
The Ravens' running game is an X factor.
The Ringer’s Anthony Dabbundo: "If Jackson does play, the next question to ask is how much he'll be limited as a runner. He ran for only 71 total yards in the four games following his return from a hamstring injury last season. The explosiveness of the offense will be considerably limited if Jackson can't be an effective scrambler and part of the running game. If Jackson is anything close to 100 percent, this will be a dream matchup for the Ravens. The Bills have an extremely limited defense against both the run and the pass, and they haven't shown much of a penchant for stopping Derrick Henry in the past. Buffalo has had consistent issues allowing explosive runs for multiple seasons."
Jackson will lead the Ravens to an upset win.
Weigel: "Sunday's loss to the Bengals may have been the worst second-half collapse yet in the Ravens' long-running series of them. Coach Jesse Minter called for better leadership from his players. Defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver asked for fans at M&T Bank Stadium to get louder to pump up the team. But, somehow, all is not lost, because the Ravens are poised to get quarterback Lamar Jackson back from an ankle injury. And folks, this Bills pass defense is bad. It's allowed 285.8 passing yards per game (31st in the NFL), with the Rams' Matthew Stafford and Raiders' Kirk Cousins each going for 300-plus in the Bills' last two games before their bye. We always talk about how this offense lacks dynamism when Jackson is out. Also missing: the arm talent. The Ravens answer Minter's call and hang on in a shootout."
Jackson always gives the Ravens a chance, but …
The Baltimore Banner’s Jonas Shaffer: "The Bills move just as efficiently on the ground as through the air. They're very good on third down and in the red zone. They're going to put up points. So that puts Jackson in the position of having to save his team by breathing life into an offense that has died in the second half of its past two losses. Is it possible? Sure. The Ravens were the most explosive team in the league with Jackson at the helm. They've hung big numbers on the Bills in recent years, and Buffalo's defense remains vulnerable to downfield attacks, allowing 7.4 yards per attempt. This will likely be an entertaining game, but history has taught us to bet against the Ravens making the critical winning play in Buffalo."
NFL.com’s Bobby Kownack: "NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported that Jackson, who has practiced in full so far this week, is expected to return after a three-game absence due to an ankle injury, but will he be the same Lamar who can dismantle defenses with ease? He hasn't historically played well when banged up – just think back to his struggles last season. If he's at all affected still, that could give Buffalo's beleaguered defense (30th in points allowed; 31st in yards) just enough of a reprieve to make the difference. Even so, the Bills, currently owners of the highest-scoring offense in franchise history (32.8 points per game), have enough firepower to win if a shootout does end up taking place."
Allen will need to have a big game for the Bills to win.
NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein: "I think it's going to be a high-scoring game. I like the Bills in this game, but I do think that Josh is going to have to have a strong performance because I don't think the Bills defense can be counted on in this matchup."
Expect another Ravens-Bills matchup that goes down to the wire.
Bleacher Report’s Brad Gagnon: "This veteran Ravens team is extremely unlikely to go down easily after being embarrassed in the second half against Cincinnati in Week 7. This changes if Lamar Jackson doesn't play again, but the last two games between Baltimore and Buffalo were decided by a total of three points and I'm expecting something similar if Jackson suits up in Orchard Park Sunday."
Why Jackson and Henry Are Still NFL's Best One-Two Punch
Are Jackson and Henry still the NFL's scariest backfield duo?
The question was posed to Seth Rollins, a WWE star and regular contributor on "Good Morning Football," and his praise for Jackson and Henry was as emphatic as a stomp to the head.
"To me, this is a no-brainer. Absolutely," Rollins said. "We're saying it like there's anybody even close. When Lamar Jackson is healthy, this backfield is terrifying, because you have a guy in Derrick Henry who is a bona fide Hall of Famer, first-ballot, no question, maybe one of the greatest running backs of all time when it's all said and done. He will run through you, he will put you on the ground, he will make you cry.
"And then you've got Lamar Jackson, who when he wants to take off can do the same thing. He can shake you out of your pants, or he can just stay behind the line and chuck the ball down the field. There is no duo in the NFL with a one-two punch like this, and it's not even close."
